Hello all!
Here’s what I think is good for home owners and new buyers to understand in Calgary’s housing market.
Each month the Calgary Real Estate Board releases data on market performance.
I’ve been sifting out some key data points for the past four and a half years to help anticipate near term supply (inventory) changes.
Understanding these changes, helps me put some context on near term market movements.
In recent years I’ve been layering on larger economic data points, and my understanding of what’s happening in the broader economy, to help anticipate buyer demand.
That said, here is March 2019 Real Estate data from CREB.
Detached Homes:
Sales To New Listings:
This ratio combines new listings entering the market with listings leaving the market (sold or expired).
A higher number indicates less net new inventory entering the market. If the sales to new listings ratio was 100%, every listing that entered the market would be met with a home that exited the market. No new inventory would be added. Lower numbers are the opposite.
Calgary’s sales to new listings ratio fell month over month and is on the lower end of the spectrum over the previous four years.
New listings are down year-over-year, which is positive, but so is the number of sales. Total inventory is also up year over year by just over 10%.
Absorption Rate:
This absorption rate combines new listing inventory, total inventory and sales volume into a monthly data point.
The absorption rate tells us in months how long it would take to liquidate all of Calgary’s single family detached inventory at the pace of that months sales volume.
Between 2-4 months is a balanced market. Higher absorption rates indicate a buyers market (buyers have negotiating leverage) and lower absorption rates indicate a sellers market (sellers have negotiating leverage).
Calgary’s detached housing absorption rate is seasonally lowering, but is at multi-year highs. The buyers I am working with are negotiating 4-6% below list price. CREB sale-to-list price ratio for detached homes is 96.62%.
Average Price:
The average price is lower both month over money and year over year.
Again, with any average data point, please interpret this with a grain of salt. Each price point, area, quadrant, neighbourhood etc will influence price movements. A trend is a trend though.
I’ve added another image from the CREB report. This shows the volume of sales per price range. Sales of detached homes in the price range of $200 – $499K are relatively strong year over year comparatively. Higher price range ($500K+) sales numbers are down much more. Again, this is context for the City of Calgary’s average price changes.
Apartment Data:
Sales To New Listings:
I find there to be a relatively tight clustering of data for this time of year. Looking closely, sales to new listings is down month over month and up year over year.
Absorption Rate:
The absorption rate is seasonally falling but still very high relative to the near past. What’s positive is total listing inventory is down 19.97% and new listing inventory is also down 12.21%year over year. Offsetting that is total sales are down 13.70%.
Median Price:
Median price is down slightly both year over year and month over month.
Conclusion:
A buyers market continues in Calgary. If you’re feeling confident with the prospects of employment, have saved up for a down payment and have a Real Estate purchase on your mind, take a close look at the market.
This Spring should see more new listing inventory come onto the market. I think more sellers are moving away from listing their homes at 2014 prices and pricing them to sell.
Lower fixed rate borrowing costs are also a nice touch for today’s buyers. Also, the threat of increasing Bank of Canada interest rates has all but evaporated, so current and new variable rate clients can exhale.
I think sellers, serious about selling, would be wise to look at their Realtors capacity, marketing tactics, budget and recent results to sell their home. Ask me for a referral.
As always, connect with me regarding your Mortgage related questions. Thank you in advance of your referrals too!
Talk soon,
Chad Moore
P.S
I’ve been in SUCH a workout funk lately? I’m floundering.
The rush and new vibe of the New Year has definitely passed. For whatever reason, I can’t seem to “get up” to work out?
I think what’s missing is the pull of a goal. I’m not training for anything – I would be working out for health in-and-of-itself. In the past, this has been enough to pull me into maintaining a work out regime. Not now.
Luckily, I’m still motivated to eat healthy so my body is not changing radically, but I am off my October physical peak.
Otherwise, I’m still volunteering with the Calgary Colts Junior Football Club. With Spring coming, football is in the air!!
I also bought a used pair of shoes online. Is that crazy to you?
Let me know what’s happening with you. Talk soon!
