For my long-time readers, here’s another rendition of my monthly Calgary Real Estate analysis that provides context on the market (scroll to the data if you’d like)
For my new readers, below is some fundamental Real Estate data that help anticipate changes in the supply side of the Calgary Real Estate coin (detached & apartment condos).
Housing demand can be anticipated by understanding longer term macro-economic data and trends. I’ve been writing on these major cogs in the economic machine for about 18 months now.
Layering this data (without overwhelm), with my own understanding of home affordability and outlook for my life, helps me navigate home buying decisions today.
All data from CREB.
Calgary Detached Housing Data:
Sales To New Listings Ratio:
This ratio combines new homes entering the market for sale (new listings) with home leaving the market (expired or sold listings).
A 100% ratio means for each home that enters the market, a home leaves the market. A 100% ratio would indicate there is no forecasted growth in listing supply.
Calgary’s sales-to-new-listing ratio increased month over month and is higher year over year. This is a small win for the detached housing sector indicating a slightly “better” future listing inventory supply.
Absorption Rate:
The absorption rate factors current inventory and sales volume to give us an indicator of how long it would take to liquidate ALL of the homes for sale, at the pace of the current months sales volume.
Calgary’s absorption rate is dropping since the beginning of the year and is now about the same year over year.
This is a function of our new inventory being down 10% year over year, resulting in a about the same total inventory as last year and our total sales for the month of April also being slightly higher.
If new listing inventory continues to taper, with sales being about the same year over year, we’ll see our absorption rate drop which will help stabilize price.
Average Price:
Average price seems to be flowing within the upper and lower limits of home prices within the last 5 years of data.
Sales to list price ratio is 96% which is down a little less than 1% from last year.
The detached days on market is also up from 41 days to 49 days.
I’m seeing my buyers be very aggressive when offering to purchase and willing to completely walk away – in some cases shelve their entire home search for 6-12 months!!
Funny enough, I’ve connected with a Realtor from Vancouver and Toronto recently and have heard about the stark distinction between our markets.
Listings in Toronto, enter the market and then set an “offer date”. This is where the sellers review all competing offers and select the best one for them. Think about that. Crazy.
Apartment Condos:
Sales To New Listings Ratio:
Condo sales to new listings ratio is seasonally trending higher which is a function of 22% less new inventory coming online combined with 4% less sales.
Absorption Rate:
Calgary’s condo absorption rate is steeply dropping from the beginning of the year but is still on the upper limit of the previous 5 years of data.
This is a function of total inventory being down 15% y-o-y and total sales only being down 3% y-o-y.
Median Price:
Median price is the middle point of the total range of all condo sales. This helps smooth out some price volatility due to lower total sale numbers.
The sale to list price ratio is at about 95%, slightly down year over year.
Days on market is also at 68 which is up about 15% year over year.
Conclusion:
It’s a buyers market. I think it’s important to remember that different areas, quadrants, neighbourhoods, property types and certainly price points all respond differently in Calgary’s market.
Be sure to consult with a top producing Real Estate professional for an expert opinion.
I think one of a couple things will need to come to fruition to change our Real Estate market.
- Job market drives demand for housing.
- If demand (jobs) remain about the same, we need new inventory pressure to deflate.
Look for either of these indicators in your information travels or here in my emails.
Talk soon,
Chad Moore
P.S
Do you have Mother’s Day plans?
Many of you know I volunteer for the Calgary Colts Junior Football Association.
The Colts have partnered with Sport Check for the Mothers Day Walk/Run for many years. We need volunteers to help with set up/take down of the course, course marshalling and more!
This is a great opportunity to volunteer some of your family, while Mom’s walk/run the course (Mom’s can also volunteer too, like my Mom :-)).
If you’d like to help the Calgary Colts and I out, let me know!!
Thanks in advance!
