I think when companies let go of contractors/employees in a challenging economy, they are thinking about cost savings today AND cost accrual of re-hiring contractors/employees in the future.
Intuitively, when faced with a situation of less demand for employment, I think companies would first decide to release contract workers and retain more full time employees for a longer period of time.
[Am I going out on a limb here :-)] …
When oil began sliding last Summer, moving into Fall, then into Winter I think this is what many companies considered. I think, like many potential home buyers, the mindset may have been “let’s wait and see” where oil prices settle at BEFORE making knee jerk decisions.
So Why Might June Be Important?
I think we are at the leading edge of a window where some oil companies are coming to the end of their “wait and see” patience.
For those companies who may have been hoping for oil to rebound to a higher level, and with more certainty, may decide they are not seeing that. I think continued uncertain economic conditions may lead to more layoffs in Calgary.
In May 2015 Alberta’s seasonally adjusted UNemployment rate was up 0.3% from April 2015 (month over month) and up 1.1% from May 2014 (year over year). Read the entire summary here.
So What Does This Mean For You?
I think more reports of job layoffs, increasing UNemployment numbers, decreasing Real Estate prices, AND the threat of a “slow” summer (economically) re-enforce the mind set of “wait and see“.
And really, who can blame that?
For me, when I am confused or uncertain, my decision typically is the “do nothing” strategy. I find this is very typical of people. I think we tend to move in herds, for safety. I am often positively socially reinforced thinking like other people.
But have you ever been exposed to the notion; doing the opposite of the masses can be significantly more profitable?
I remember people felt great and excited to purchase homes at the TOP of the Real Estate market in 2006-2007.
Everyone else was buying, so I thought it was socially acceptable to also buy. I think the opposite is true in a down market (or the threat of a down market) where other people think it’s not a good time to buy, so I hold off.
I report on the concept of “Herd Mentality” in my ebook (click image below).
I am not proposing buying in Calgary’s Real Estate market TODAY is going to be profitable. I am simply introducing the concept of “herd mentality” (download ebook by clicking the image below).
I’ve written you this e-book – free of charge. Because this content is in electronic form, I do not think adding any charge is warranted ($7.99, for example).
I do need your email address to ensure you get it though.
Leading Indicators I Am Tracking For You
I think the leading indicator, of all leading indicators, for Real Estate prices in Calgary, is the price of oil. After that, what could one look at to ANTICIPATE where prices may trend? I am reporting on the following for you:
- Unemployment (this post).
- Housing supply.
- Net inmigration.
If you would like to be notified of new content, and be added to my private email list, Click Here to Subscribe. Also, downloading my ebook above adds you to my email list too.
Stay Close To The Market
If I am in the market to purchase a home, or sell my condo to purchase a home, I think staying close is wise. I think creating my Real Estate team, sooner than later, gives me an advantage over others.
Why?
Because I am positioning myself to strike quickly. When I understand how much I can afford AND the market movements of my home affordability price range, I identify good value.
Also, because I am ready I am willing to make a strong and authentic offer to purchase to what may be a distressed seller, I am in a very strong position.
I am taking on new clients who are working, have savings for a down payment and are not recently bankrupt.
I am continuing to earn your business by offering you value and strategic advice up to, during and after you purchase your home.
Thank you for reading.
Talk soon,
Chad Moore
P.S
I was at a networking event yesterday afternoon and got to ride Calgary’s new cycle track home.
I rode North on 5th St SW then West on 12th Ave SW …smooth sailing with a BIG smile on my face.
If you’re biking around Calgary and the option presents itself to rip through down town, I suggest you check it out.
See you on the paths!
