The Bank of Canada is making a rate announcement Wednesday, July 24th.
Here’s what you need to know:
Below is a chart showing the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Consumer Price Index is the name of inflation in Canada.
Remember, inflation is the change of prices compared to one year ago. A lower inflation rate still means prices are rising, just at a slower rate.
We can see a slow trend of headline CPI and several other core measures of CPI all trending to the “target range” of 1-3%.
Core measures of inflation were created about 10 years ago for the Bank of Canada to monitor inflation with and without various items in the inflation weighting basket.
The world is also keenly watching how inflation, and interest rates are evolving in the United States.
U.S. inflation data came out last week, lower than market expectations. U.S. consumer price index is 3.0%. A Federal Reserve rate cut in September is a growing possibility. This helps the Bank of Canada possibly cut rates, without straying too far from the U.S. Fed.
Risks to the inflation outlook mean areas of interest the Bank of Canada have highlighted that can possibly create a meaningful change toward the 2% inflation target.
The market consensus is increasing the possibility of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates by 0.25% in July based on a lower Consumer Price Index print in both the U.S. and Canada.
For every $100,000 of Mortgage, a 0.25% rate cut equals about $15/month payment decrease. Therefore, a $400,000 Mortgage holder would see their payment drop by about $60/mo.
If you are currently in a fixed rate Mortgage, your payment does not change.
I’m continuing to see fixed rate Mortgages grind lower. This is better news for everyone planning to renew their Mortgage in about 12-18 months.
Two common themes for Mortgage selection today are a 3-year fixed rate Mortgage, and a 5-year fixed rate Mortgage.
The thinking with a 3-year term is your renewal date would be two years sooner than the longer duration 5-year term. The idea is you would be renewing into a lower interest rate environment.
The thinking with a 5-year term is the rate is low and worthy to be locked in. We all agree today’s 5-year fixed rate is higher than pandemic, and great financial crisis rates (GFC)—but still low.
I think it’s fair to say great financial crisis and pandemic era rates were artificially manipulated lower. Today’s rates are much less manipulated. With this context, today’s 5-year rates are not that bad.
Some folks also want a 5-year rate so they’re not having to worry about their Mortgage for a longer time.
Eventually, the consideration of a variable rate will come back into conversation.
Only with the benefit of hindsight will we know if a 3-year term or 5-year term Mortgage was best.
I hope this rate preview is helpful! If you have any questions, reach out!
Talk soon,
Chad Moore
P.S.
If you’re thinking of moving, and are curious how to decide about sale-purchase order—I’ve written you some ideas on how to navigate that decision. I’ve titled the pdf “The Ultimate Home Transition Blueprint—Checklist” (link).
Let's review the following: Canada's recent population growth. New immigration policy. Links to Calgary Real…
Pay attention here ...is a tight Spring market starting to take shape? Last month I…
Hey Guys! I have a question for you ... How can variable interest rates go…
Hey Guys! The market odds of a 0.50% or 50 basis point rate cut this…
Hey Guys! I write you monthly about near term housing supply changes in Calgary's detached…
Hey Guys! It's looking like meaningful trends are taking hold, with reasonably noticeable divergence from past…