Let’s review the following:
- Canada’s recent population growth.
- New immigration policy.
- Links to Calgary Real Estate market.
Canada’s Recent Population Growth:
We know population growth is a demand side factor to Real Estate. A growing population increases competition for home purchases and rentals—driving values/prices higher.
A big part of Calgary’s average detached home price rising 50%, in about four years, was population growth.
But too much of anything is too much. And that seems to be where Canada is with shockingly high population growth numbers.
The federal government has reversed course, and updated their immigration plan moving forward.
Why?
There seems to be a growing number of Canadians who are not happy with the current levels of immigration. See second image below.
Canada’s New Immigration Policy:
Non permanent residents consist of asylum claimants, work and study permit holders, study permit holders, and work permit holders. These non permanent residents are about 3 million people or 7% of Canada population.
The federal government wants to bring this segments of our population down to 5%.
Read these policy updates directly from the government here.
Measures designed to achieve the 5% target
- International student cap: IRCC introduced an annual cap on international student study permits, including a further 10% reduction in 2025 relative to 2024 targets.
- Post-Graduation Work Permit Program (PGWPP) reform: IRCC tightened eligibility requirements for the PGWPP to better align the program with immigration goals and labour market needs.
- Temporary Foreign Worker Program reform: Employment and Social Development Canada introduced a 10% cap on employers hiring temporary foreign workers under the low-wage stream, and announced an increase to the starting hourly wage for temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream by 20%.
- Limiting work permits for spouses of temporary residents: IRCC is tightening work permit eligibility for spouses of international students and temporary foreign workers.
These policies will reduce the population of this section of people, and ultimately drag on Canada’s overall population growth.
Calgary’s Real Estate Market:
Alberta has seen its’ fair share of population influx and exodus over the years.
And coincidentally, Real Estate market pricing peaks are just after the highest years of population growth!
I do not know to what extent a national reduction of population will have on Alberta, or Calgary’s population.
We could see a slow down of new immigrants, and continued strong inter-provincial migration? Or a slow down of both segments?
Overall, I think AB’s population will continue to increase.
The first chart below shows Alberta population growth, per quarter, displayed as vertical bars going back to 2003. The yellow line is overall population growth.
The second chart shows in-out migrants and interprovincial migration.
(link to images via StatsCan)
Conclusion:
Our federal government is down—way down in the polls. And it seems like they are waking up to some of the reasons why. People are not happy with the current levels of immigration.
The feds are throwing the brakes on the number of people entering Canada—and that will have an effect on Real Estate demand. To what extent? I do not know.
Why?
Because there are many other Real Estate demand stimulants simultaneously happening which are, 1) 30 year amortizations for first time home buyers, 2) 30 year amortizations for all buyers of new homes, 3) refinancing to 90% loan-to-value for basement suites/lane homes and 4) lowering interest rates by the Bank of Canada.
The Bank of Canada’s most recent monetary policy report planned for about 1.7% population growth in 2025-2026. If the feds stick to their proposed plan, the Bank of Canada might have to revise some of their forecasts?
A sinking population might provide cover for lower than anticipated interest rates, as other inflationary pressure would not be as great.
I hope this is helpful!
Talk soon,
Chad Moore
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P.P.S.
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