What Do You Think Keeps The Bank of Canada Up At Night? Inflation? Or Deflation? Neither …It’s Stagflation!
Let’s Talk About It:
Ask your parents what they remember from an inflationary economy?
Inflation ran wild in the 1980’s, like a pent up puppy released into a dog park. Canada’s central bankers had to spike interest rates to “collar that dog” to bring inflation back under control.
Ever since, inflationary pressure has eased with interest rates trending lower for close to 40 years now. In the 90’s, the primary mandate for the Bank of Canada was created to keep inflation between 1-3%. Low and stable.
Traditional monetary policy response to economic expansion and contraction have been to increase or decrease the key overnight lending rate in Canada. The 2020 health crisis, and resulting economic shock, dropped Canada’s key lending rate to 0.25%.
As this health crisis passes, and our economy returns to some semblance of “normal”, inflaitonary pressures are a threat. Here’s why:
Think back to 2019 (ahh the good old days, right?). We had generationally low unemployment, high labour participation rates (people looking for work who were not employed), relatively low interest rates, close to no slack in Canada’s national economy …and we were barely meeting the Bank of Canada’s inflation target. Why? The three D’s.
Google’s definition of stagflation: “persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy.”
The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are becoming more focused on returning the economy to pre-pandemic employment AND maintaining low stable inflation (1-3%).
Raising interest rates and or early quantitative tightening (pulling back on each central banks bond purchase program) is cited as not helpful for employment.
I can imagine how uncomfortable central banks might become if inflationary pressure continues to mount, but employment continues to lag behind pre pandemic numbers.
I think when Tiff Macklem (Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Jerome Powell (Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve) go to sleep at night, this is what keeps them up.
Stagflation might be the “ation” word that keeps central bankers up at night.
For now, Mortgage rates are “safe” with the 10 year U.S. Treasury Yield dropping:
If you are planning to sell, purchase, renew or refinance your Mortgage – be sure to reach out to me to help you. Thank you in advance!
Talk soon,
Chad Moore
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