Hey!
Who else is hitting the New Year hard?
I’ve got a new yoga membership and meals prepped for the week! I know others who are committed to new work out plans and goals.
What do you have happening? Let me know!
Let’s look back at the Real Estate data for 2019 to see how the first quarter of 2020 might look.
All data is from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB).
I’ve plucked out several pieces of information to help understand where we are today, and how to look forward.
Detached Housing Summary:
- Homes priced under $500,000 recorded sales growth of nearly 9%.
- Homes price over $500,000 recorded sales decline of 11%.
- North West and South housing districts recorded annual sales growth.
- 2019 price declines ranged from 1% in the North East district up to 5% decline in the City Centre district. This is likely a function of averaged priced homes in each district.
Apartment Housing Summary:
- Total apartment unit sales (2,672) were just above 2018 levels.
- The market offset itself with gains in North, West, and South East districts, compared with declines in North East, North West and East districts.
- Oversupply eased in 2019 which slowed the rate of overall decline in the apartment market.
Detached Market Data:
Sales To New Listings:
Anticipates new listing entering the market. Higher percentage points indicate less new listings.
Absorption Rate:
Indicates total time to sell all housing inventory. Combines sales volume with listing inventory. Lower numbers indicate high sales, low inventory and increasing prices.
Average Price:
Apartment Market Data:
Sales To New Listings:
Absorption Rate:
Median Price:
Conclusion:
I think our detached housing market should see continued signs of stabilization in 2020.
The narrative in the media, supported with CREB data, is clear signs of a bottom are forming for home prices under the $500K price point.
I think over time, this stabilization will continue working up the price ladder. We need other factors to assist in this (rising incomes, net migration of people living in AB, easing market supply etc).
Calgary’s apartment market also continues to bottom out. If I were to string the median apartment price data out in one line, I think I would start to see the shaping of a very wide “u”.
I’m sure to note how the recent geo-political developments between the U.S and Iran trickle into the Canadian housing market (bond market changes and information from the Bank of Canada).
Talk soon,
Chad Moore
